Nick Butler: What does future hold for the Youth Olympic Games?

A new poll introduced on insidethegames last week - "Following the Summer Youth Olympic Games in Nanjing, do you think the event should continue beyond Buenos Aires 2018?" - brought home a rather irritating truth for me.

For despite spending two weeks immersed in the world of Nanjing 2014, and plenty more preparing for it beforehand, I still don't feel confident in predicting whether or not they will continue, and neither do I have a strong personal opinion to offer on the subject.

Certainly, the impression we got in Nanjing, drummed into us over and over again, was that the Youth Olympics are fantastic, a great idea fulfilling its objectives and with a rich and vibrant future, with the positive reactions of athletes and local people alike evidence for this.

When I ventured to ask the International Olympic Committee (IOC) whether they were disappointed with enthusiasm in the rest of the world, I was hit with the statistical equivalent of an ippon as a bombardment of television and social media statistics supposedly proved that, when the fact it was only the second Summer Youth Olympics is considered, international interest is very high.

Yet when listening to this I was reminded of an instance, early on in my journalistic career, when I was trying to discover the relationship between two bodies by interviewing a prominent member of one. No matter how many times I broached the subject, I was given the same answer that the relationship was a smooth and successful one, even though all my instincts were telling me this was not the case. When the interview was finished and the record was proverbially and literally off, my suspicions were confirmed as I was told the complete opposite view.

I feel that the situation here may be rather similar.

A brainchild of former IOC President Jacques Rogge, the simple need to show respect and leave a lasting legacy for the Belgian who is now Honorary President is likely to see the Games continue at least for a couple more cycles. But there have been multiple indications that his successor Thomas Bach is less keen.

Not many of these were provided in Nanjing, although by revisiting my press conference notes I found a couple of interesting pointers.

Shortly before the Opening Ceremony, Bach insisted they are "now 100 per cent concentrated on making the Youth Olympics an outstanding success".

He added: "Then after this, we will see what is lined up and we will see what could be done better. Nothing in this world is so good that it cannot be tampered with, but this discussion will start only after a successful Youth Olympic Games here in Nanjing."

Thomas Bach spoke positively about the Youth Olympic concept while in Nanjing, but did admit that changes will be considered ©Getty Images

On several occasions, Bach also insisted that the extravagance seen in China would not become a blueprint for future Games, insisting that "each edition...has to be different", and that "if you take one Games as a blueprint for one another it would be pretty boring". He subsequently went further, pointing out how both Lillehammer 2016 and Buenos Aires 2018 would focus around sustainability and making best use of existing facilities.

The problem here is that, from my standpoint at least, Nanjing 2014 was an Olympics-in-miniature. Except for the age of the competitors and the various new events, the ambience was very similar to the other major multi-sport events I have attended this year, namely the Winter Olympics in Sochi and the Commonwealth Games in Glasgow.

The ceremonies were spectacular, the volunteers numerous, the facilities luxurious and the Youth Olympic Village, personally selected by Bach as his favourite aspect, was arguably even better than the one in Sochi, both in terms of accommodation and atmosphere.

But this was not how the Youth Olympics were envisaged by Rogge and its other founding fathers. It was meant to be on a far smaller scale than its senior counterpart, with few purpose-built facilities, and in locations that would be unlikely to ever host an actual Olympic Games. At a time when many cities, in Western Europe but also elsewhere, are becoming alienated with hosting the Games, this growing scale will be a major concern in terms of perception, not to mention the pressure it will put on the IOC purse-strings.

Fortunately, this aspect is also something that seems relatively easy to rectify, and as Bach suggested, lower-scale Games can be expected in both Lillehammer and Buenos Aires.

As we did see in Nanjing with the lack of a track cycling programme, a model similar to the one adopted for the European Games in Baku next year appears likely, where only disciplines which can be sustainably held in the host city will be considered. So if a city does not have an existing canoe slalom course, for example, then slalom canoeing will not be held, and a more detailed sprint programme may instead take place.

With one of the buzzwords in Nanjing being "innovation", the Youth Olympics have also become a laboratory in which new disciplines can be showcased. In Singapore we saw the global introduction of 3x3 basketball, in Nanjing it was the turn of hockey 5s and numerous mixed team events, as well as the especially innovative Sports Lab. This is something that is being seen as particularly important, and in Lillehammer, new events will include a cross-country cross race including small jumps and bumps, mass start events in long track speed skating, and a bobsleigh mono-bob competition.

The Youth Olympics provides an opportunity for new sports, like hockey 5s, to be showcased ©Getty Images

Then we have the question of the aim of the Youth Olympics. What are the Games setting out to achieve? Are they an elite-sporting competition, or an arena for young people to develop? This is the biggest problem the Games face, and, I fear, the hardest one to resolve.

The vast number of cultural and educational programmes held in Nanjing, as well as the many initiation events to integrate people into new sports, suggested the latter aim was equally if not more important. New events focusing more on camaraderie and unity than medals, such as the 8x100 metres relay, also suggested this.

As did the IOC's keenness to highlight how the Games were aiding sport for wider development, from the South Sudanese runner participating under the Olympic Flag, to the Zambian 100m winner being a product of the Sport for Hope Centre in the African country, to the Ukrainian shooting gold medallist being presented with his medal by a Russian IOC member.

I have only been covering the Olympic Movement for a year, so cannot really comment on the foremost aims of the Rogge years, but under Bach there does seem to have been a specific shift towards using sport for wider development, with the partnership with the United Nations epitomising this leaning. The question ahead is whether the Youth Olympics is still seen as viable piece of this new framework?

The trouble is, despite all this wider focus, the Youth Olympics remains ultimately an elite-sporting competition for top youngsters, and while there is no official medals table, the quest for countries to succeed remains paramount, and that success remains best judged by medal tallies.

Yet while this results-driven focus remains important for National Olympic Committees and athletes, it is not a way to generate interest in the rest of the world. Even the presence of Lithuania's London 2012 Olympic swimming champion Rūta Meilutytė in Nanjing generated headlines focused more around her consequent absence from the first few days of the European Swimming Championships than her presence at the Youth Olympics.

Even the presence of Rūta Meilutytė in Nanjing did not generate too many international headlines ©Getty Images

Rather than either the cultural or sporting work, by far the most successful way by which Nanjing 2014 was marketed was via the #YOGselfie hashtag on social media, and this shows that thinking outside the box is the best way to grab global attention. One strategy going forward could be enticing global superstars to appear at future Games, with the presence of Lionel Messi as an Ambassador for Buenos Aires 2018 an early example of this.

Justin Bieber or One Direction at an Opening Ceremony maybe? Or Usain Bolt paying a visit to the Youth Olympic Village? Expensive this may be, the benefits of this greater appeal could outweigh the cost.

So, after compiling these very haphazard thoughts, my tentative opinion is that, as Bach said, there is potential for the Youth Olympics and they could yet continue into the future, but only if they take their own special identity independent from the Olympic course, and focus on developing a unique strength and appeal.

One other thing which I have thought of as I type is that the Summer Youth Olympics have more scope by which to do this than the Winter version, which will be harder to take to new places and audiences, and harder to find new and innovative events.

So, as my colleague David Owen suggested last November, it could ultimately be only the Winter Youth Olympics which falls by the wayside, with the Summer version continuing. Or, perhaps, it will be decided that neither will survive or that 2022 will become the last Summer bidding process.

Time will tell as the post-Nanjing appraisal begins, and, while my instinct is that they will and should continue in some shape or form for a good while yet, in the reforming era of Olympic Agenda 2020, nothing can be taken for granted.

Nick Butler is a reporter for insidethegames. To follow him on Twitter click here.