I have been trying to second guess what sports Tokyo 2020 is most likely to move under its revised Olympic venue plan.

This may become clearer next month, possibly as soon as the next International Olympic Committee (IOC) Project Review meeting expected on February 4 and 5.

But for now much uncertainty persists, with suggestions surfacing last month that as many as 14 sports might be affected.

What is driving this in part is the Brave New IOC World, ushered in by Agenda 2020, in which compactness is no longer such a cardinal virtue for Games planners and sustainability/cost containment much more of one.

John Coates, chairman of the IOC's Tokyo 2020 Coordination Commission, made this pretty plain in November, telling Reuters: "[The IOC] has come out and specifically said that we should make the maximum use of existing facilities.

"That, so far as I am concerned, overrides the eight kilometre philosophy which we had as part of the bid."

IOC Coordination Commission chair John Coates has encouraged Tokyo 2020 organisers to take advantage of existing facilities ©AFP/Getty Images



Tokyo 2020, for its part, last month acknowledged it had been reviewing the original venue plan since June, telling me the review was "being conducted from the perspectives of legacy, the impact of the Games on Tokyo residents and venue construction and maintenance costs".

We already know, for example, that a smaller design for the National Stadium that will be the Games' centrepiece has been unveiled.

This should restrict the cost of this big-ticket item to far closer to the $1.5 billion (£1 billion/€1.3 billion) estimated in the original bid book, but I don't see why it would make any difference to the sports and ceremonies it is planned to stage there.

We also know, as I reported at length last month, that the rowing and flat-water canoeing venue is up in the air.

It has been suggested to me that as many as eight alternatives may now have been assessed without a satisfactory and cost-effective solution emerging.

As yet, one still cannot state categorically that the originally envisaged Sea Forest Waterway will not be built; but this would probably require the city to agree to foot a potentially quite hefty bill for non-event-related preparation work.

If the waterway proposal is dropped, would it have a knock-on effect for the temporary equestrian cross-country and mountain bike courses planned for the land to either side of the channel?

The rowing and flatwater canoeing venue is one facility that is still up in the air
©Getty Images



When I put this question to the International Cycling Union (UCI) this month, they told me that a staff member was travelling to Tokyo to discuss venue plans – "and the different options being offered to us".

The International Equestrian Federation has told me that the eventing cross country for the 2020 Games "will be held in Tokyo".

This is no great surprise, since it would clearly not be practical to move the cross country too far away from the other three-day event elements, which have been earmarked for the Dream Island Stadium.

I would be far from astonished though to see switches for both horse riders and mountain bikers when the revised masterplan is revealed.

It is possible too that the more relaxed attitude to the compactness of the Games may open up fresh options for other cycle disciplines, with both the BMX course and the velodrome conceived as temporary venues costing a combined $74 million under the original blueprint.

Also close to the Sea Forest zone, on the other side of Tokyo Gate Bridge, is a proposed permanent sailing facility, the Wakasu Olympic Marina, that was costed at $105 million (£68 million/€86 million) in the original bid book.

If Sea Forest is dropped from Tokyo 2020's plans, I would be far from surprised to see this bite the dust too, simply on the assumption that there must be pre-existing sailing venues in the Tokyo region that could be pressed into service for the Olympics and Paralympics at lower cost.

Still with water sports, I gather that a move is in prospect for the proposed Kasai canoe slalom course, costed at $36 million (£24 million/€32 million) including overlay.

Since I understand that this is merely to a different position in the same parkland area, however, consequences for competitors (and overall costs) would appear to be limited.

The Saitama Super Arena, one hour outside Tokyo, is one pre-existing venue which could be used ©Wikipedia



Perhaps the biggest saving against price estimates contained in the bid book will come if, as expected, basketball and badminton are moved to pre-existing venues.

This would mean that Youth Plaza Arenas A and B would not need to be constructed at a cost, in the Bid Book, of more than $400 million (£267 million/€357 million).

The 37,000-seat Saitama Super Arena, one hour north of Tokyo, now looks red hot favourite to host men's basketball.

Badminton, with its particularly high ceiling requirement, may be more of a challenge to place, but one imagines, again, that suitable halls within reach of central Tokyo must exist, even if temporary seating for additional spectators needs to be provided.

It has, meanwhile, occurred to me to wonder - given that Tokyo 2020 is also coming under pressure to add new sports and disciplines to the Games programme - whether organisers might be more inclined to find space for 3x3 basketball, with its clear youth and urban appeal, as a consequence of the flexibility that the sport appears to be showing with regard to the likely switch of its main venue.

We should also know more about how Tokyo 2020 will go about choosing any additional sports in two weeks' time: the recently-constituted Additional Event Programme Panel is expected to agree the process at the February IOC Project Review meeting.

As for other adjustments, I am hearing word of a proposed reconfiguration of the International Broadcasting Centre (IBC)/Main Press Centre (MPC), along with the suggestion that this may have a knock-on effect for sports slated initially to be accommodated at the Tokyo Big Sight halls nearby.

That is to say wrestling, taekwondo and fencing.

The competition schedule set out in the bid book confines taekwondo to four days in the latter stages of the Games, making it feasible for the sport to share a venue with other indoor disciplines.

That all adds up to 10 sports that seem to face a moderate to high chance of being moved under the new masterplan.

I am not convinced that the final tally will be as high as 14, but if it is, who else might be affected?

Well, I have received various indications along the way that little is thought likely to change with respect to archery, modern pentathlon, aquatics and judo.

And when our eyes fastened on volleyball, on the basis that the planned Ariake Arena carried a $200 million (£133 million/€178 million) price-tag in the bid book, the International Volleyball Federation (FIVB) told us it understood that "no changes have been made to our sports venues".

The National Stadium is being re-built with a slightly downscaled design, despite the continuation of an opposition movement ©Getty Images



Hockey, located in the planned Seaside Park Hockey Stadium, priced at $52 million including overlay, might be one possibility; so, conceivably, might gymnastics, placed in the bid book in a $100 million (£66 million/€87 million) temporary facility not far from the proposed velodrome and BMX course.

I should emphasise, though, that I have no remotely hard information one way or the other (not yet) on either of these.

Handball, table tennis, weightlifting and boxing are all earmarked for existing venues, are all relatively low cost and, hence, I would think are all unlikely to be moved.

The football proposals seem to me to make good use of the country's 2002 World Cup legacy, while Ariake Tennis Park - though $67 million (£60 million/€45 million) of works is said to be required - hosts the Japan Open Tennis Championships and is hence, perhaps, the obvious Tokyo 2020 venue.

That, then, is my best stab for now at this new Olympic pursuit of venue hopping; we should all be rather better informed by this time next month.